In 2011, global methanol demand reached 54 million tons. In the coming years, with the rapid development of emerging applications, the global methanol demand will soar to 85 million tons in 2015. By then, the global methanol overcapacity situation is expected to be effectively eased, and the average operating rate of methanol plants will rise from 60% to 65% in the past two years to about 80%. This is the information that the reporter obtained from the recent 2012 China International Conference on Nitrogen Fertilizer and Methanol.
Pang Xiongying, senior director of IHS Consulting China, conducted a detailed analysis of the global methanol market. He pointed out that from 2008 to 2011, the global methanol production capacity will increase at an average annual rate of 10 million tons, and the demand growth during the period will lag behind the growth of production capacity. Due to a large excess of production capacity, the average operating rate of the methanol plant is maintained at 60% to 65%. From 2012 to 2015, the annual new methanol production capacity in the world is expected to be 3 million tons. At the same time, the demand for new application fields such as methanol blended gasoline, methanol-made dimethyl ether and methanol-to-olefins will continue to grow rapidly, especially to In 2015, a large number of methanol-to-olefins projects in China will be put into production. The consumption of methanol in this area will exceed 15 million tons. The rapid increase in demand is expected to raise the average operating rate of methanol plants to about 80%.
For the North American region, he said that in the past five years, the production of methyl tert-butyl ether in the area has been greatly reduced due to the contamination of water sources by methyl tert-butyl ether, resulting in a 30% reduction in the consumption of methanol. In the next few years, the demand and production of methanol in the region will remain stagnant and there will be no major development.
In Europe in recent years, about 8 million tons of methanol are consumed each year, and by 2015, methanol consumption in the region will reach about 9 million tons. The production of methanol in the region is mainly based on natural gas. Due to the lack of raw material advantages, the production of methanol is declining. In the future, methanol consumption in this region will mainly depend on imports.
The contrast with the mature economies is the Middle East. Thanks to its raw material advantages, the methanol industry in the region has been booming over the past five years, with production volume doubling from more than 3 million tons to 7 million tons. In the next few years, methanol production in the region will continue to increase substantially. Pang Xiongying further pointed out that due to the low raw material natural gas price, the production cost of methanol in the Middle East is only about 60 US dollars / ton, even if shipped to China, plus freight costs are also within 200 US dollars / ton, the competitive advantage is very prominent.
Northeast Asia is the major consumer of methanol, accounting for more than 60% of global consumption. Methanol production and consumption in the region is basically concentrated in mainland China. The consumption of methanol in the Chinese market is a global concern.
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