Since the beginning of this year, the auto dealer inventory index has remained high. The Gesta Auto reporter found that the China Auto Dealer Inventory Index was placed on the warning line from January to July this year by arranging the “China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey†issued by the China Automobile Dealers Association (50% for the inventory warning index Above, the value in February is as high as 66.6%.
And entering August, the situation has clearly improved. According to data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association on the evening of August 31, the inventory warning index for August was 47.1%, down 5.4 percentage points from the previous month and below the warning line. This is also the first time this index has been under the warning line since entering 2017.
According to the survey of the association, many dealers showed signs of recovery in the auto market in August. In August, in the last month of the traditional off-season, manufacturers and dealers increased their sales efforts. At the end of August, the school season was entered, and the demand for car pick-up for children was increased. Auto shows in some areas have stimulated local market demand. In addition, in August, some of the brand inventory structure is still not reasonable enough, the supply of tight models is insufficient, and the inventory of slow-moving models is backlog.
For the following September, the association reached two conclusions through the survey: 1. It is expected that the market demand will increase in August compared with August, and the proportion of dealers who believe that the market demand is “increased†is 45.5%; The ratio is 11.2%; the proportion of market demand is “flat†is 43.3%; 2. The dealers’ operating conditions are expected to improve in September. According to the survey, the proportion of “good†business conditions in September was 28.1%, and the proportion of “bad†was 8.6%; the proportion of “general†was 63.3%.
In short, in September, the car market will enter the traditional peak season, market demand will increase, and business conditions will improve. However, as the automobile market enters the peak season, the output of the manufacturers will increase, and September is the last month of the third quarter. Some manufacturers are impulses, and the number of tasks required by dealers will increase. The China Automobile Dealers Association recommends that dealers should rationally estimate actual market demand and rationally control inventory levels based on actual conditions to prevent excessive inventory pressure and lead to operational risks.
Supplementary explanation: According to the principle of PMI preparation, the inventory warning index adopts the method of compiling the expansion index, with 50% as the glory line. Below 50% are within reasonable limits. The higher the inventory warning index, the lower the demand for the market, the greater the inventory pressure, the greater the operating pressure and risk.
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